A research project by Katie Levesque, Sarah Unbehaun and Meerim Ruslanova

Introduction

Climate change is undoubtedly a global problem, but this fact means it is also a classic tragedy of the commons. No country wants to put itself at an economic disadvantage by restricting the use of cheap fossil fuels so all continue to emit, deteriorating the “commons” of the Earth’s protective atmosphere. This can make it difficult to get citizens to identify with the problem and take responsibility; people will more likely act when something affects them individually. On the other hand, some also argue that “green growth,” i.e. economic growth with strict environmental regulations, has positive effects both economically and on individual weel-being. In this paper we want to explore these arguments: in an environmentally-conscious country like Germany, how much do people feel, consciously or unconsciously, the effects of green house gas emissions? More specifically, do emissions affect their reported well-being or life satisfaction?


Our Research

Germany is a leader in protecting the environment while also having a long history as an industrial power and coal producer. On one hand, its energy transition (Energiewende) is considered one of the most ambitious climate policy projects in the world. On the other hand, it has struggled with appropriate incentives, a drop in oil prices and how to transform the transportation sector, not to mention coal’s continued role as a cheap and reliable fuel. Germany therefore still does emit large amounts of green house gases. We will look at greenhouse gas emissions data by federal state (Bundesland) and compare that with life satisfaction data to examine our first hypothesis:

H1: Bundeslaender with higher emissions will have lower reported levels of life satisfaction.

On the other hand, it may not be the emissions themselves that affect people’s life satisfaction. People who are more concerned about the environment would be more concerned with emissions and may feel less satisfied with life than those who are less concerned about the environment. Therefore our second hypothesis is:

H2: Reported individual concerns with the environment are, likewise, negatively reflected in the life satisfaction.

The map below illustrates the amount CO2e emissions (tons) per square kilometer of each state in Germany. The information is based on 2010 data from Laenderarbeitskreis. There is a wide range in the level emissions per square kilometer between the states, particularly in city-states and industrial states such as Berlin, Hamburg and Bremen.


Controlling for state- and time-fixed effects, we anticipate the following effects as a result of our model:


Data

For the purpose of our research, the following data has been collected:



Global Emissions per Square Kilometer

The map below illustrates the amount CO2e emissions (tons) per square kilometer globally. The information is based on 2007 Data from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Compared to the values of countries, both in the same geographic area, and globally, Germany has extremely high levels of emissions per square kilometer.


Comparing Effects of Variables on Life Satisfaction by State

The dynamic chart below allows an examination of the correlation between the variables of interest and overall life satisfaction. The highlights the changes for each of the German states between the years 1990-2012. Scroll through the years at the bottom to see the changes in values over time for each state.


What Determines Overall Satisfaction?

Using the means of each state, the scatterplots below shows the correlation between our variables of interest and overall happiness levels.


Correlation of Age and Life Satisfaction

Age seems to be very slightly positively correlated, though the majority of observations in the middle show a fairly flat trend.


Correlation of Gross Monthly Income and Life Satisfaction

Gross monthly income shows a more pronounced positive correlation, but flattens out the more income increases.


Correlation of Emissions and Life Satisfaction

Comparing the state-level emissions data with life satisfaction, it seems that emissions, whether measured per capita or per square kilometer, both appear almost flat, though with an interesting peak in lower emissions per capita.



Correlation of Concern for the Environment and Life Satisfaction

Life satisfaction appears to be negatively correlated with environmental concern, indicating that the more concerned a respondent is about environmental conditions, the lower the overall happiness of respondents, though the relationship is weak.


Overview of Emissions by State

In the per capita measure, Brandenburg, Saarland, Hamburg, and Nordrhein-Westfalen have the highest emissions, with Sachsen, Sachsen-Anhalt and Niedersachsen also showing higher emissions than the rest.


When measured in square kilometers, the three city-states of Bremen, Berlin, and Hamburg are unsurprisingly the highest due to their small land area, not to mention relatively dense populations. Saarland is also geographically small, which means that Nordrhein-Westfalen is the only standout in this measure as a state with both a large land area and high emissions.

Results

In our data, the potential negative impacts on happiness associated with various configurations of emission levels was nearly non-existent (despite being statistically significant) when we controlled for state-level and individual characteristics. We approached the problem of estimating the reduction in satisfaction by examining a number of regressions based on life-satisfaction that include a variety of socio-economic data to justify a person’s stated level of life satisfaction on a subjective 1-10 scale.

Variable Coefficient direction and strength Expected direction
Total Emissions - -
Emissions per Capita - -
Emissions per Sq. KM - -
Concern for the Environment - -
Age – -
Monthly Income + +
Employment ++ +
Having a partner ++ +
Gender (no diff.) + ~

Conclusions

Multilevel Coefficient Models show that the variables of interest, state-level emissions and environmental worries, demonstrate minimal negative impact on life satisfaction, despite being statistically significant. These findings might be explained by the fact that, while some Bundeslaender do emit large volumes of GHG per square kilometer, they are still relatively low compared to other energy-intensive economies like China. Thus, the impact of these emissions is neither readily tangible, nor directly relevant for the German population in terms of extreme natural disasters and environmental changes. Even the recent appearances of global climate change in the form of heat waves and extreme weather are usually common for the whole country, distorting the direct impact of the state-specific climate performance on its residents’ well-being.

Moreover, controlling for the socio-economic factors confirms that being employed and having a partner substantially increases one’s life satisfaction, while ageing does the opposite, albeit negligibly for every year. Income also has a minimal positive effect, as well as being a woman.

In short, this research supports some of the previous literature when looked at in terms of statistical significance, but in terms of social significance, they indicate that emissions do not seem to play a large role in determining their life satisfaction. While citizens might be enjoying the benefits of green growth in more abstract ways, they do not feel the direct impacts strongly in comparison to other factors affecting their life satisfaction.




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